Adaptive estimation of the conditional intensity of marker-dependent counting processes

We propose in this work an original estimator of the conditional intensity of a marker-dependent counting process, that is, a counting process with covariates. We use model selection methods and provide a non asymptotic bound for the risk of our estimator on a compact set. We show that our estimator reaches automatically a convergence rate over a functional class with a given (unknown) anisotropic regularity. Then, we prove a lower bound which establishes that this rate is optimal. Lastly, we provide a short illustration of the way the estimator works in the context of conditional hazard estimation. October 23, 2008 AMS (2000) subject classification. 62N02, 62G05.